When Wars Break Out, South Africans Feel It at the Pump
A data-driven look at how global conflicts, Brent crude oil prices, and the ZAR/USD exchange rate combine to shape what South Africans pay for fuel.
Every time a conflict erupts somewhere in the world, there is a ripple effect that most of us only notice when we fill up our cars. Oil prices spike, the Rand weakens, and suddenly we are paying more per litre — sometimes a lot more.
We wanted to understand this relationship better, so we built a data-driven Fuel Price Tracker that connects the dots between global conflicts, Brent crude oil prices, the ZAR/USD exchange rate, and what South Africans actually pay at the pump.
What the Data Reveals
The numbers tell a compelling story. The Iraq War (US Invasion) caused the largest oil price spike at over 355%, while the Gulf War pushed prices up by 95%. More recently, the Russia-Ukraine War drove a 48% increase, and the current Middle East Escalation has added around 25%.
But here is what caught our attention: oil price movements alone do not tell the full story for South Africa. The Rand acts as an amplifier. When oil spikes and the Rand weakens simultaneously — which often happens during global instability — the impact at the pump is compounded. During the Saudi-Russia Oil Price War, even though oil prices actually dropped by 67%, the Rand weakened so severely that South Africans did not benefit nearly as much as they should have.
The Levy Burden
On top of all this, government levies currently sit at R6.93 per litre — that is 34% of the pump price going to the General Fuel Levy (R4.25/L) and the RAF Levy (R2.38/L). These levies have grown from R0.23 to R6.93 since they were introduced — an increase of nearly 3,000%.
Why This Matters
Right now, Brent crude sits at $102.19/bbl, 95 ULP Inland is at R20.30/L, and the ZAR/USD rate is R16.72. With 11 conflicts tracked and the Middle East Escalation still active, understanding these dynamics is not just academic — it affects every household and business in the country.
Whether you are a logistics company planning fuel budgets, a policy analyst studying energy security, or simply a South African who wants to understand why the price at the pump keeps climbing, data like this matters.
Built with Purpose
At OrionTech, our motto is "If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Manage It." This tracker pulls from Brent crude historical prices, SA DMRE fuel price data, SARB exchange rates, and conflict timelines to give a complete picture of the forces shaping what we pay for fuel.
The tool is live and free to explore: oriontech-fuel.streamlit.app